Anaheim Ducks at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Nikita NesterenkoGoals1
- Pavel MintyukovAssists1
- Nikita NesterenkoPoints1
Stars- Wyatt JohnstonGoals1
- Matt DucheneAssists1
- Wyatt JohnstonPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:32Mikael Granlund Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Thomas Harley (29), Roope Hintz (30)3–4
- P34:37Thomas Harley Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (26), Mavrik Bourque (12)3–3
- P219:20Leo Carlsson Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
- P213:03Leo Carlsson Goal (15) Poke, assists: Ryan Strome (28), Troy Terry (32)2–2
- P24:25Mikael Granlund Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (42), Mason Marchment (19)1–2
- P22:48Nikita Nesterenko Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (11), Mason McTavish (23)1–1
- P111:42Wyatt Johnston Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (28), Roope Hintz (29)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:25Mikael Granlund Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (42), Mason Marchment (19)ANA 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 70% → 84% +14DAL 70% → 84%+14 pts
- P213:03Leo Carlsson Goal (15) Poke, assists: Ryan Strome (28), Troy Terry (32)ANA 2 – 2 DAL · ANA 16% → 32% +16ANA 16% → 32%+16 pts
- P219:20Leo Carlsson Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: noneANA 3 – 2 DAL · ANA 34% → 59% +24ANA 34% → 59%+24 pts
- P34:37Thomas Harley Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (26), Mavrik Bourque (12)ANA 3 – 3 DAL · DAL 36% → 64% +28DAL 36% → 64%+28 pts
- OT2:32Mikael Granlund Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Thomas Harley (29), Roope Hintz (30)ANA 3 – 4 DAL · DAL 56% → 97% +42DAL 56% → 97%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 76%
- ML ANA +290 / DAL -380
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- DAL: Elo 72.0%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- DAL -309
- ANA +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.5 – 4.0 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1574 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −2 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +164 Elo | DAL 72.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 77.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 76.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.44th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.84th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.9% | Shot share | 51.3%8th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 90.9%6th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3213–21 | Road vs home | 24–71st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–21 | 31–35 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 25–30 |
| Underdog | 43–19 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 25–42 | 30–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 2–3 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.