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Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast

Final/OTTNT, truTV, HBO Max, Altitude Sports

Away

Stars

42-21-3

3–4

at

Home

Avalanche

41-24-3

DAL 46%COL 54%

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Ball Arena · TNT, truTV, HBO Max, Altitude Sports

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.

COL favored DAL favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3OTCOL50%DAL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Stars
Avalanche

Scoring summary

  • OT0:34Cale Makar Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (76), Brock Nelson (25)3–4
  • P314:32Matt Duchene Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (17), Mason Marchment (18)3–3
  • P314:12Mavrik Bourque Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (25), Wyatt Johnston (37)2–3
  • P217:19Jonathan Drouin Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (8), Valeri Nichushkin (9)1–3
  • P26:24Valeri Nichushkin Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (26), Cale Makar (53)1–2
  • P114:09Martin Necas Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (52), Jonathan Drouin (20)1–1
  • P14:10Jason Robertson Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (28), Mikko Rantanen (45)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P114:09Martin Necas Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (52), Jonathan Drouin (20)DAL 1 – 1 COL · COL 37% → 54% +16
  2. P26:24Valeri Nichushkin Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (26), Cale Makar (53)DAL 1 – 2 COL · COL 53% → 71% +18
  3. P217:19Jonathan Drouin Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (8), Valeri Nichushkin (9)DAL 1 – 3 COL · COL 75% → 89% +15
  4. P314:32Matt Duchene Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (17), Mason Marchment (18)DAL 3 – 3 COL · DAL 11% → 49% +38
  5. OT0:34Cale Makar Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (76), Brock Nelson (25)DAL 3 – 4 COL · COL 51% → 91% +40

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Avalanche 54%

Toss-upHit
DAL 46%COL 54%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
COL 54%
ML DAL +110 / COL -130
Pre-line forecast
COL 57%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
COL 53%
Ratings vs. market
−1.2 pts
COL: Elo 53.0%, market 54.3%
Fair odds
COL -119
DAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DAL 2.6 – 2.9 COL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDALCOLWhy
Team rating15761556Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−1+6DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsCOL +21 EloCOL 53.0%
Market-implied ratingsCOL 58.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCOL 57.0%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCOL 54.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche compared, with each team's league rank
DALStatCOL
4th of 323.4Goals scored3.35th of 32
5th of 322.6Goals allowed2.911th of 32
4th of 32+0.8Margin+0.48th of 32
8th of 3251.5%Shot share52.9%5th of 32
4th of 3290.9%Save percentage90.0%18th of 32
2nd of 327–3Last 107–32nd of 32
5th of 3218–14Road vs home22–127th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

StarsAvalanche
1500155016001650NovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDALCOL
Puck line30–3530–37
Last 105–57–3
Favorite25–3024–31
Underdog5–56–6
Overs–unders29–3634–33
Overs–unders, last 107–35–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DAL 6–6 COL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.