Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Parker KellyGoals2
- Ross ColtonAssists2
- Parker KellyPoints2
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals1
- Joel FarabeeAssists1
- Jonathan HuberdeauPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:21Valeri Nichushkin Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (19)4–2
- P316:22Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (25) Deflected, assists: Rasmus Andersson (15), Joel Farabee (12)3–2
- P35:55Parker Kelly Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (10)3–1
- P33:08Blake Coleman Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (17), MacKenzie Weegar (32)2–1
- P215:24Parker Kelly Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan O'Connor (9), Jack Drury (7)2–0
- P113:21Ryan Lindgren Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:21Ryan Lindgren Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (9)COL 1 – 0 CGY · COL 62% → 76% +14COL 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P215:24Parker Kelly Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan O'Connor (9), Jack Drury (7)COL 2 – 0 CGY · COL 79% → 91% +13COL 79% → 91%+13 pts
- P33:08Blake Coleman Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (17), MacKenzie Weegar (32)COL 2 – 1 CGY · CGY 6% → 19% +13CGY 6% → 19%+13 pts
- P35:55Parker Kelly Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (10)COL 3 – 1 CGY · COL 82% → 95% +13COL 82% → 95%+13 pts
- P316:22Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (25) Deflected, assists: Rasmus Andersson (15), Joel Farabee (12)COL 3 – 2 CGY · CGY <1% → 6% +6CGY <1% → 6%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 64%
- ML COL -195 / CGY +165
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- COL: Elo 56.3%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- COL -175
- CGY +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.1 – 2.4 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +7 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +44 Elo | COL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 62.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.632nd of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.9% | Shot share | 49.6%17th of 32 |
| 17th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.7%10th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 8th of 3217–15 | Road vs home | 18–1514th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–37 | 32–32 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–31 | 9–14 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 23–18 |
| Overs–unders | 33–33 | 24–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–0 CGY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.