Anaheim Ducks at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Cutter GauthierGoals1
- Mason McTavishAssists2
- Cutter GauthierPoints2
Blues- Dylan HollowayGoals1
- Jordan KyrouAssists3
- Jordan KyrouPoints3
Scoring summary
- P312:19Oskar Sundqvist Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Zack Bolduc (14), Robert Thomas (38)2–7
- P36:18Jake Neighbours Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (29), Justin Faulk (25)2–6
- P32:23Nikita Nesterenko Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Cutter Gauthier (21), Mason McTavish (22)2–5
- P218:10Mathieu Joseph Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–5
- P215:39Radek Faksa Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (12), Nathan Walker (5)1–4
- P210:06Cutter Gauthier Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Radko Gudas (13), Mason McTavish (21)1–3
- P28:19Dylan Holloway Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (24), Jordan Kyrou (28)0–3
- P11:30Pavel Buchnevich Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Jake Neighbours (18), Cam Fowler (21)0–2
- P10:41Brayden Schenn Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (29), Jordan Kyrou (27)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:41Brayden Schenn Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (29), Jordan Kyrou (27)ANA 0 – 1 STL · STL 61% → 74% +13STL 61% → 74%+13 pts
- P11:30Pavel Buchnevich Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Jake Neighbours (18), Cam Fowler (21)ANA 0 – 2 STL · STL 74% → 85% +10STL 74% → 85%+10 pts
- P28:19Dylan Holloway Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (24), Jordan Kyrou (28)ANA 0 – 3 STL · STL 89% → 96% +7STL 89% → 96%+7 pts
- P210:06Cutter Gauthier Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Radko Gudas (13), Mason McTavish (21)ANA 1 – 3 STL · ANA 4% → 11% +7ANA 4% → 11%+7 pts
- P215:39Radek Faksa Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (12), Nathan Walker (5)ANA 1 – 4 STL · STL 91% → 97% +6STL 91% → 97%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- STL 61%
- ML ANA +150 / STL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- STL: Elo 57.9%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- STL -159
- ANA +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.4 – 3.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | STL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +3 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +55 Elo | STL 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 64.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.919th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.018th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.8% | Shot share | 49.3%18th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 89.8%19th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3213–20 | Road vs home | 15–1725th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–20 | 38–29 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 6–12 |
| Underdog | 43–18 | 32–17 |
| Overs–unders | 24–42 | 31–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 0–5 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.