Nashville Predators at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Jakub VranaGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists1
- Jakub VranaPoints1
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals1
- Frank VatranoAssists1
- Alex KillornPoints1
Scoring summary
- P311:20Alex Killorn Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (14), Leo Carlsson (17)1–2
- P34:25Jakub Vrana Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (16), Ryan O'Reilly (26)1–1
- P215:52Troy Terry Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (21)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:52Troy Terry Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (21)NSH 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 44% → 67% +22ANA 44% → 67%+22 pts
- P34:25Jakub Vrana Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (16), Ryan O'Reilly (26)NSH 1 – 1 ANA · NSH 27% → 55% +27NSH 27% → 55%+27 pts
- P311:20Alex Killorn Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (14), Leo Carlsson (17)NSH 1 – 2 ANA · ANA 47% → 81% +34ANA 47% → 81%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 59%
- ML NSH -160 / ANA +135
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.7 pts
- NSH: Elo 48.4%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- NSH -145
- ANA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.5 – 3.0 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +4 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +11 Elo | ANA 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 52.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.121st of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 46.0%31st of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.9%6th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 30th of 328–24 | Road vs home | 15–1725th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–39 | 45–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 10–27 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 42–18 |
| Overs–unders | 27–37 | 24–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 1–3 ANA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.