Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Yanni GourdeAssists1
- Nikita KucherovPoints1
Stars- Oskar BackGoals1
- Colin BlackwellAssists1
- Mason MarchmentPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Gage Goncalves Goal Snap Shot3–2
- SO0:00Nikita Kucherov Goal Snap Shot3–2
- SO0:00Matt Duchene Goal Snap Shot3–2
- SO0:00Jake Guentzel Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Jason Robertson Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- P213:48Mason Marchment Goal (17) Poke, assists: Jamie Benn (27), Matt Duchene (43)2–2
- P27:58Oskar Bäck Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Colin Blackwell (9), Sam Steel (15)2–1
- P27:21Anthony Cirelli Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Brandon Hagel (43), Yanni Gourde (16)2–0
- P14:35Brandon Hagel Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (26), Nikita Kucherov (67)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:35Brandon Hagel Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (26), Nikita Kucherov (67)TB 1 – 0 DAL · TB 53% → 68% +15TB 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P27:21Anthony Cirelli Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Brandon Hagel (43), Yanni Gourde (16)TB 2 – 0 DAL · TB 71% → 85% +14TB 71% → 85%+14 pts
- P27:58Oskar Bäck Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Colin Blackwell (9), Sam Steel (15)TB 2 – 1 DAL · DAL 14% → 29% +14DAL 14% → 29%+14 pts
- P213:48Mason Marchment Goal (17) Poke, assists: Jamie Benn (27), Matt Duchene (43)TB 2 – 2 DAL · DAL 27% → 48% +21DAL 27% → 48%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TB 53%
- ML TB -125 / DAL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.9 pts
- TB: Elo 43.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -114
- DAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.8 – 2.7 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −5 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +47 Elo | DAL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 53.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.44th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.9 | Margin | +0.84th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 51.4%8th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 90.8%7th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 14th of 3215–18 | Road vs home | 25–71st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–31 | 31–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 26–23 | 25–31 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 29–38 | 31–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 1–2 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.