Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Tanner PearsonGoals1
- Kaedan KorczakAssists1
- Tanner PearsonPoints1
Wild- Marcus JohanssonGoals1
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists1
- Marcus JohanssonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:28Jack Eichel Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (45), Kaedan Korczak (9)5–1
- P316:57Tanner Pearson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P314:57Jack Eichel Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (28), William Karlsson (14)3–1
- P31:42Marcus Johansson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (28)2–1
- P28:22Brett Howden Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (27)2–0
- P16:23Jack Eichel Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (44), Shea Theodore (42)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:23Jack Eichel Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (44), Shea Theodore (42)VGK 1 – 0 MIN · VGK 66% → 79% +13VGK 66% → 79%+13 pts
- P28:22Brett Howden Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (27)VGK 2 – 0 MIN · VGK 79% → 91% +11VGK 79% → 91%+11 pts
- P31:42Marcus Johansson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (28)VGK 2 – 1 MIN · MIN 6% → 18% +12MIN 6% → 18%+12 pts
- P314:57Jack Eichel Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (28), William Karlsson (14)VGK 3 – 1 MIN · VGK 92% → >99% +8VGK 92% → >99%+8 pts
- P316:57Tanner Pearson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVGK 4 – 1 MIN · VGK >99% → >99% +0VGK >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 67%
- ML VGK -225 / MIN +190
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- VGK: Elo 57.9%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- VGK -201
- MIN +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.2 – 2.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −13 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +56 Elo | VGK 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 62.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.726th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.3% | Shot share | 47.9%28th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 91.2%3rd of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 15th of 3215–18 | Road vs home | 18–1717th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–30 | 36–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–28 | 17–20 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 19–15 |
| Overs–unders | 33–37 | 31–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 4–1 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.