Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nick PaulGoals1
- Darren RaddyshAssists1
- Nikita KucherovPoints1
Golden Knights- Tomas HertlGoals1
- Alex PietrangeloAssists2
- Alex PietrangeloPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:55Nikita Kucherov Goal (30) Slap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (42), Brandon Hagel (45)2–4
- P317:18Nicolas Hague Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (28), Brett Howden (14)1–4
- P217:38Nick Paul Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (9), Darren Raddysh (27)1–3
- P119:13Jack Eichel Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Zach Whitecloud (8)0–3
- P113:33Tomas Hertl Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (22)0–2
- P111:02Nicolas Roy Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: William Karlsson (13), Alex Pietrangelo (27)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:02Nicolas Roy Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: William Karlsson (13), Alex Pietrangelo (27)TB 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 51% → 67% +16VGK 51% → 67%+16 pts
- P113:33Tomas Hertl Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (22)TB 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 67% → 80% +13VGK 67% → 80%+13 pts
- P119:13Jack Eichel Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Zach Whitecloud (8)TB 0 – 3 VGK · VGK 82% → 91% +9VGK 82% → 91%+9 pts
- P217:38Nick Paul Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (9), Darren Raddysh (27)TB 1 – 3 VGK · TB 4% → 11% +8TB 4% → 11%+8 pts
- P317:18Nicolas Hague Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (28), Brett Howden (14)TB 1 – 4 VGK · VGK >99% → >99% +0VGK >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 51%
- ML TB -105 / VGK -115
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- VGK: Elo 51.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- VGK -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.2 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | VGK and TB on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −6 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +11 Elo | VGK 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 50.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.79th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.8 | Margin | +0.75th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 53.5%4th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 90.1%15th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 15th of 3216–19 | Road vs home | 26–104th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–33 | 39–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 26–24 | 29–28 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders | 30–39 | 33–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–0 VGK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.