Detroit Red Wings at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Patrick KaneGoals1
- Patrick KaneAssists2
- Patrick KanePoints3
Golden Knights- Tomas HertlGoals3
- Ivan BarbashevAssists2
- Tomas HertlPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:59Jack Eichel Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Ivan Barbashev (25)3–6
- P39:36Alex DeBrincat Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (31), Simon Edvinsson (19)3–5
- P28:02Tomas Hertl Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (43), Jack Eichel (64)2–5
- P27:07Mark Stone Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (26), Noah Hanifin (26)2–4
- P21:49Patrick Kane Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (32), Dylan Larkin (34)2–3
- P119:57Nicolas Roy Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (24), Jack Eichel (63)1–3
- P116:32Tomas Hertl Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Brayden McNabb (13), Kaedan Korczak (8)1–2
- P111:47Tomas Hertl Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (42), Jack Eichel (62)1–1
- P14:47Lucas Raymond Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (33), Patrick Kane (30)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:47Lucas Raymond Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (33), Patrick Kane (30)DET 1 – 0 VGK · DET 36% → 51% +15DET 36% → 51%+15 pts
- P111:47Tomas Hertl Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (42), Jack Eichel (62)DET 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 47% → 63% +16VGK 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P116:32Tomas Hertl Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Brayden McNabb (13), Kaedan Korczak (8)DET 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 62% → 77% +15VGK 62% → 77%+15 pts
- P21:49Patrick Kane Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (32), Dylan Larkin (34)DET 2 – 3 VGK · DET 11% → 23% +11DET 11% → 23%+11 pts
- P27:07Mark Stone Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (26), Noah Hanifin (26)DET 2 – 4 VGK · VGK 78% → 90% +12VGK 78% → 90%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 64%
- ML DET +170 / VGK -200
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- VGK: Elo 61.9%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -180
- DET +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.3 – 3.2 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +6 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +85 Elo | VGK 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 65.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.36th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.79th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.65th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.8% | Shot share | 53.5%4th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.1%15th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 19th of 3214–18 | Road vs home | 25–105th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–28 | 38–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–12 | 28–28 |
| Underdog | 34–16 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders | 34–34 | 32–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–1 VGK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.