Boston Bruins at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists1
- Morgan GeekiePoints1
Golden Knights- Pavel DorofeyevGoals3
- Brandon SaadAssists2
- Pavel DorofeyevPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:49Morgan Geekie Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (28), David Pastrnak (50)1–5
- P314:24Ivan Barbashev Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (61)0–5
- P310:21Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (30) Backhand, assists: Brandon Saad (14), Noah Hanifin (25)0–4
- P35:47Brett Howden Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (12)0–3
- P219:10Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (25), Brandon Saad (13)0–2
- P29:19Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (60), Noah Hanifin (24)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:19Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (60), Noah Hanifin (24)BOS 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 65% → 82% +16VGK 65% → 82%+16 pts
- P219:10Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (25), Brandon Saad (13)BOS 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 83% → 94% +11VGK 83% → 94%+11 pts
- P35:47Brett Howden Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (12)BOS 0 – 3 VGK · VGK 96% → >99% +3VGK 96% → >99%+3 pts
- P310:21Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (30) Backhand, assists: Brandon Saad (14), Noah Hanifin (25)BOS 0 – 4 VGK · VGK >99% → >99% +0VGK >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P314:24Ivan Barbashev Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (61)BOS 0 – 5 VGK · VGK >99% → >99% +0VGK >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 71%
- ML BOS +230 / VGK -280
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- VGK: Elo 62.7%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- VGK -243
- BOS +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.1 – 3.4 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +6 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +90 Elo | VGK 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 71.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 69.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.36th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.79th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.66th of 32 |
| 25th of 3248.6% | Shot share | 53.3%5th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.1%17th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 26th of 3211–21 | Road vs home | 24–105th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–37 | 37–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–22 | 27–28 |
| Underdog | 22–15 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders | 33–36 | 31–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–2 VGK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.