Tampa Bay Lightning at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Ryan McDonaghAssists1
- Ryan McDonaghPoints1
Utah HC- Logan CooleyGoals2
- Nick SchmaltzAssists2
- Logan CooleyPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:03Alexander Kerfoot Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Ian Cole (14)4–6
- P32:54Brayden Point Goal (34) Tip-In, assists: Ryan McDonagh (21), Jake Guentzel (33)4–5
- P31:10Nick Schmaltz Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Logan Cooley (32), Clayton Keller (53)3–5
- P217:53Logan Cooley Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: John Marino (10), Nick Schmaltz (40)3–4
- P217:23Jake Guentzel Goal (34) Tip-In, assists: Nick Perbix (11), Yanni Gourde (17)3–3
- P25:58Alexander Kerfoot Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Stenlund (9), John Marino (9)2–3
- P25:22Anthony Cirelli Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (44), Nikita Kucherov (68)2–2
- P118:49Brayden Point Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (32), Oliver Bjorkstrand (22)1–2
- P117:42Logan Cooley Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Kesselring (20), Nick Schmaltz (39)0–2
- P16:42Josh Doan Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jack McBain (10), Lawson Crouse (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:22Anthony Cirelli Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (44), Nikita Kucherov (68)TB 2 – 2 UTAH · TB 31% → 49% +18TB 31% → 49%+18 pts
- P25:58Alexander Kerfoot Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Stenlund (9), John Marino (9)TB 2 – 3 UTAH · UTAH 51% → 69% +19UTAH 51% → 69%+19 pts
- P217:23Jake Guentzel Goal (34) Tip-In, assists: Nick Perbix (11), Yanni Gourde (17)TB 3 – 3 UTAH · TB 27% → 49% +22TB 27% → 49%+22 pts
- P217:53Logan Cooley Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: John Marino (10), Nick Schmaltz (40)TB 3 – 4 UTAH · UTAH 51% → 73% +23UTAH 51% → 73%+23 pts
- P32:54Brayden Point Goal (34) Tip-In, assists: Ryan McDonagh (21), Jake Guentzel (33)TB 4 – 5 UTAH · TB 8% → 24% +16TB 8% → 24%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 51%
- ML TB -105 / UTAH -115
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- UTAH: Elo 46.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.2 – 3.3 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −1 | TB: Brandon Halverson (no track record yet) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +24 Elo | TB 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.822nd of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.018th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.9 | Margin | −0.218th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 50.5%13th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 90.1%16th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 14th of 3216–18 | Road vs home | 14–2030th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–32 | 31–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 26–24 | 10–24 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders | 29–39 | 30–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.