Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- David PerronGoals1
- Claude GirouxAssists1
- David PerronPoints1
Sabres- Jacob Bernard-DockerGoals1
- Ryan McLeodAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P31:23Tage Thompson Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (14), Rasmus Dahlin (42)2–3
- P212:59Jacob Bernard-Docker Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Kozak (1), Peyton Krebs (13)2–2
- P27:39David Perron Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (15), Claude Giroux (32)2–1
- P118:31Jack Quinn Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (33), Ryan McLeod (26)1–1
- P11:35Brady Tkachuk Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (37), Dylan Cozens (25)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:35Brady Tkachuk Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (37), Dylan Cozens (25)OTT 1 – 0 BUF · OTT 60% → 73% +13OTT 60% → 73%+13 pts
- P118:31Jack Quinn Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (33), Ryan McLeod (26)OTT 1 – 1 BUF · BUF 26% → 42% +16BUF 26% → 42%+16 pts
- P27:39David Perron Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (15), Claude Giroux (32)OTT 2 – 1 BUF · OTT 57% → 75% +18OTT 57% → 75%+18 pts
- P212:59Jacob Bernard-Docker Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Kozak (1), Peyton Krebs (13)OTT 2 – 2 BUF · BUF 24% → 43% +19BUF 24% → 43%+19 pts
- P31:23Tage Thompson Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (14), Rasmus Dahlin (42)OTT 2 – 3 BUF · BUF 44% → 70% +25BUF 44% → 70%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 60%
- ML OTT -165 / BUF +140
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.8 pts
- OTT: Elo 50.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- OTT -149
- BUF +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.5 – 3.0 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −6 | OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · BUF: James Reimer: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +1 Elo | OTT 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.112th of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 49.0%22nd of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 88.8%31st of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 14th of 3217–20 | Road vs home | 17–1616th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–39 | 34–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–27 | 5–16 |
| Underdog | 19–12 | 29–19 |
| Overs–unders | 32–37 | 41–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 2–4 BUF in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.