Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Claude GirouxGoals1
- Tim StutzleAssists1
- Claude GirouxPoints1
Maple Leafs- Brandon CarloAssists1
- Brandon CarloPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:53Michael Amadio Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (13)4–2
- P214:08Claude Giroux Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (28)3–2
- P212:16David Perron Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (36)2–2
- P28:55Auston Matthews Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P27:57Jake Sanderson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (48), Brady Tkachuk (26)1–1
- P26:49William Nylander Goal (37) Backhand, assists: Nicholas Robertson (7), Brandon Carlo (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:49William Nylander Goal (37) Backhand, assists: Nicholas Robertson (7), Brandon Carlo (9)OTT 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 54% → 72% +18TOR 54% → 72%+18 pts
- P27:57Jake Sanderson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (48), Brady Tkachuk (26)OTT 1 – 1 TOR · OTT 28% → 46% +19OTT 28% → 46%+19 pts
- P28:55Auston Matthews Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: noneOTT 1 – 2 TOR · TOR 54% → 73% +19TOR 54% → 73%+19 pts
- P212:16David Perron Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (36)OTT 2 – 2 TOR · OTT 27% → 46% +20OTT 27% → 46%+20 pts
- P214:08Claude Giroux Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (28)OTT 3 – 2 TOR · OTT 47% → 68% +22OTT 47% → 68%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML OTT +115 / TOR -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 59.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -124
- OTT +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.6 – 2.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +9 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +64 Elo | TOR 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.210th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 49.3%18th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 90.7%9th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 17th of 3215–19 | Road vs home | 20–1312th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–37 | 31–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–25 | 20–28 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 30–35 | 33–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 5–1 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.