Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Brock NelsonGoals2
- Jonathan DrouinAssists2
- Brock NelsonPoints2
Senators- Dylan CozensGoals1
- Tim StutzleAssists1
- Dylan CozensPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:59Dylan Cozens Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (49), Jake Sanderson (40)5–1
- P21:54Brock Nelson Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (15), Ross Colton (12)5–0
- P117:29Joel Kiviranta Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (11), Charlie Coyle (9)4–0
- P114:23Cale Makar Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (22), Valeri Nichushkin (10)3–0
- P111:28Brock Nelson Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (9), Martin Necas (51)2–0
- P110:29Nathan MacKinnon Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (21), Cale Makar (55)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:29Nathan MacKinnon Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (21), Cale Makar (55)COL 1 – 0 OTT · COL 51% → 67% +16COL 51% → 67%+16 pts
- P111:28Brock Nelson Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (9), Martin Necas (51)COL 2 – 0 OTT · COL 67% → 80% +13COL 67% → 80%+13 pts
- P114:23Cale Makar Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (22), Valeri Nichushkin (10)COL 3 – 0 OTT · COL 81% → 90% +9COL 81% → 90%+9 pts
- P117:29Joel Kiviranta Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (11), Charlie Coyle (9)COL 4 – 0 OTT · COL 91% → 96% +5COL 91% → 96%+5 pts
- P21:54Brock Nelson Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (15), Ross Colton (12)COL 5 – 0 OTT · COL 97% → 99% +2COL 97% → 99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- COL 51%
- ML COL -115 / OTT -105
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- COL: Elo 48.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- COL -104
- OTT +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.3 – 3.2 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −1 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +11 Elo | OTT 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 50.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.2% | Shot share | 51.0%9th of 32 |
| 18th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.6%11th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 8th of 3218–16 | Road vs home | 20–118th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–39 | 29–38 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–33 | 11–26 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 18–12 |
| Overs–unders | 35–34 | 32–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–0 OTT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.