Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals1
- Valeri NichushkinPoints1
Maple Leafs- Steven LorentzGoals1
- John TavaresAssists1
- Steven LorentzPoints1
Scoring summary
- P32:53Steven Lorentz Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Benoit (7)1–2
- P22:48Valeri Nichushkin Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (77), Cale Makar (54)1–1
- P20:28Auston Matthews Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (62), John Tavares (30)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:28Auston Matthews Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (62), John Tavares (30)COL 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 47% → 64% +18TOR 47% → 64%+18 pts
- P22:48Valeri Nichushkin Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (77), Cale Makar (54)COL 1 – 1 TOR · COL 35% → 53% +18COL 35% → 53%+18 pts
- P32:53Steven Lorentz Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Benoit (7)COL 1 – 2 TOR · TOR 48% → 73% +26TOR 48% → 73%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- COL 54%
- ML COL -130 / TOR +110
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- COL: Elo 50.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -119
- TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.4 – 3.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −11 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +6 Elo | COL 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 50.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.017th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.311th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.1% | Shot share | 49.3%19th of 32 |
| 18th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.7%8th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 6th of 3218–15 | Road vs home | 21–1413th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–38 | 32–35 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 24–32 | 21–29 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 35–33 | 35–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–1 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.