Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Kevin BahlGoals1
- Martin PospisilAssists1
- Kevin BahlPoints1
Maple Leafs- Max DomiGoals1
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonAssists2
- Max DomiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:12Kevin Bahl Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dryden Hunt (1), Yegor Sharangovich (12)2–6
- P33:03Bobby McMann Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (27), Calle Jarnkrok (2)1–6
- P218:54Auston Matthews Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (20), William Nylander (33)1–5
- P215:41Auston Matthews Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (32), Mitch Marner (61)1–4
- P29:34Nicholas Robertson Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (22), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (24)1–3
- P21:39William Nylander Goal (38) Slap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (60), Auston Matthews (34)1–2
- P119:13Rasmus Andersson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (25), Martin Pospisil (18)1–1
- P11:47Max Domi Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Simon Benoit (6), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (23)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:47Max Domi Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Simon Benoit (6), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (23)CGY 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 64% → 77% +13TOR 64% → 77%+13 pts
- P119:13Rasmus Andersson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (25), Martin Pospisil (18)CGY 1 – 1 TOR · CGY 23% → 38% +15CGY 23% → 38%+15 pts
- P21:39William Nylander Goal (38) Slap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (60), Auston Matthews (34)CGY 1 – 2 TOR · TOR 62% → 77% +16TOR 62% → 77%+16 pts
- P29:34Nicholas Robertson Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (22), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (24)CGY 1 – 3 TOR · TOR 78% → 90% +12TOR 78% → 90%+12 pts
- P215:41Auston Matthews Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (32), Mitch Marner (61)CGY 1 – 4 TOR · TOR 92% → 97% +6TOR 92% → 97%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 64%
- ML CGY +170 / TOR -200
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 60.4%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -180
- CGY +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.3 – 3.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −13 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +73 Elo | TOR 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 67.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 66.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 14th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.018th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 49.2%20th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 90.7%9th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3212–19 | Road vs home | 20–1413th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–33 | 31–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 20–29 |
| Underdog | 23–19 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 25–40 | 34–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 0–3 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.