Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Travis HamonicGoals1
- Travis HamonicAssists1
- Travis HamonicPoints2
Canadiens- Josh AndersonGoals2
- Christian DvorakAssists3
- Christian DvorakPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:01Brendan Gallagher Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Christian Dvorak (17), Alexandre Carrier (19)3–6
- P318:16Josh Anderson Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (16), Jake Evans (19)3–5
- P315:23Nick Suzuki Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (12), Emil Heineman (8)3–4
- P310:22Josh Anderson Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (18), Christian Dvorak (15)3–3
- P36:13Travis Hamonic Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: David Perron (6), Tyler Kleven (3)3–2
- P33:38Lane Hutson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (18)2–2
- P212:38Michael Amadio Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Hamonic (4), Claude Giroux (30)2–1
- P116:42Drake Batherson Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (23)1–1
- P12:07Christian Dvorak Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (11), David Savard (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:38Michael Amadio Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Hamonic (4), Claude Giroux (30)OTT 2 – 1 MTL · OTT 54% → 74% +20OTT 54% → 74%+20 pts
- P33:38Lane Hutson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (18)OTT 2 – 2 MTL · MTL 22% → 47% +25MTL 22% → 47%+25 pts
- P36:13Travis Hamonic Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: David Perron (6), Tyler Kleven (3)OTT 3 – 2 MTL · OTT 53% → 80% +27OTT 53% → 80%+27 pts
- P310:22Josh Anderson Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (18), Christian Dvorak (15)OTT 3 – 3 MTL · MTL 17% → 48% +31MTL 17% → 48%+31 pts
- P315:23Nick Suzuki Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (12), Emil Heineman (8)OTT 3 – 4 MTL · MTL 48% → 90% +42MTL 48% → 90%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 56%
- ML OTT -140 / MTL +120
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- OTT: Elo 50.8%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- OTT -128
- MTL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.9 – 2.6 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −1 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +6 Elo | OTT 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 47.1%29th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.4%27th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 14th of 3216–19 | Road vs home | 17–1617th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–37 | 38–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 11–25 | 1–7 |
| Underdog | 18–12 | 37–21 |
| Overs–unders | 31–35 | 35–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 3–2 MTL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.