Buffalo Sabres at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Jack QuinnGoals2
- Ryan McLeodAssists3
- Jack QuinnPoints3
Flyers- Ryan PoehlingGoals2
- Noah CatesAssists2
- Ryan PoehlingPoints3
Scoring summary
- P315:34Ryan Poehling Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (17)4–7
- P315:05Alex Tuch Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (29)4–6
- P310:13Tyson Foerster Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (25), Noah Cates (16)3–6
- P36:39Ryan Poehling Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Owen Tippett (20), Olle Lycksell (5)3–5
- P214:11Noah Cates Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (17), Bobby Brink (24)3–4
- P210:36Matvei Michkov Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Travis Konecny (47)3–3
- P28:13Jack Quinn Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (28), Owen Power (31)3–2
- P21:41JJ Peterka Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (18), Peyton Krebs (15)2–2
- P110:57Jack Quinn Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (34), Ryan McLeod (27)1–2
- P15:56Jakob Pelletier Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (19), Ryan Poehling (14)0–2
- P15:27Matvei Michkov Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (46), Egor Zamula (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:41JJ Peterka Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (18), Peyton Krebs (15)BUF 2 – 2 PHI · BUF 30% → 47% +17BUF 30% → 47%+17 pts
- P28:13Jack Quinn Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (28), Owen Power (31)BUF 3 – 2 PHI · BUF 48% → 67% +19BUF 48% → 67%+19 pts
- P210:36Matvei Michkov Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Travis Konecny (47)BUF 3 – 3 PHI · PHI 32% → 52% +20PHI 32% → 52%+20 pts
- P214:11Noah Cates Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (17), Bobby Brink (24)BUF 3 – 4 PHI · PHI 52% → 73% +21PHI 52% → 73%+21 pts
- P36:39Ryan Poehling Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Owen Tippett (20), Olle Lycksell (5)BUF 3 – 5 PHI · PHI 79% → 94% +15PHI 79% → 94%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 53%
- ML BUF +105 / PHI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 49.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -114
- BUF +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.2 – 3.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −1 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +1 Elo | BUF 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.528th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.728th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3249.0% | Shot share | 50.3%16th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 87.8%32nd of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 27th of 3211–23 | Road vs home | 17–2026th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–35 | 35–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–16 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 30–19 | 28–25 |
| Overs–unders | 42–29 | 37–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–2 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.