Montreal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals1
- Lane HutsonAssists2
- Lane HutsonPoints2
Flyers- Sean CouturierGoals2
- Sean CouturierAssists1
- Sean CouturierPoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:47Patrik Laine Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (52), Juraj Slafkovský (28)4–6
- P313:52Matvei Michkov Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–6
- P313:34Christian Dvorak Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Josh Anderson (11), Brendan Gallagher (14)3–5
- P311:43Sean Couturier Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–5
- P310:09Tyson Foerster Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Seeler (13), Bobby Brink (23)2–4
- P32:15Cole Caufield Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Jayden Struble (10), Lane Hutson (51)2–3
- P111:15Sean Couturier Goal (13) Deflected, assists: Matvei Michkov (32), Jakob Pelletier (11)1–3
- P110:13Nicolas Deslauriers Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Olle Lycksell (4), Rodrigo Abols (3)1–2
- P17:55Alex Newhook Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: David Savard (14), Lane Hutson (50)1–1
- P11:55Matvei Michkov Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (45), Sean Couturier (26)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:55Matvei Michkov Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (45), Sean Couturier (26)MTL 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 46% → 60% +15PHI 46% → 60%+15 pts
- P17:55Alex Newhook Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: David Savard (14), Lane Hutson (50)MTL 1 – 1 PHI · MTL 39% → 54% +15MTL 39% → 54%+15 pts
- P110:13Nicolas Deslauriers Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Olle Lycksell (4), Rodrigo Abols (3)MTL 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 46% → 62% +16PHI 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P32:15Cole Caufield Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Jayden Struble (10), Lane Hutson (51)MTL 2 – 3 PHI · MTL 10% → 27% +17MTL 10% → 27%+17 pts
- P310:09Tyson Foerster Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Seeler (13), Bobby Brink (23)MTL 2 – 4 PHI · PHI 80% → 96% +16PHI 80% → 96%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 54%
- ML MTL -130 / PHI +110
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- MTL: Elo 51.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MTL -119
- PHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.4 – 3.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | 0 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +10 Elo | MTL 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.528th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.729th of 32 |
| 29th of 3247.3% | Shot share | 50.3%15th of 32 |
| 28th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 87.9%32nd of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 1–932nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3215–20 | Road vs home | 16–2027th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–29 | 34–39 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–7 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 40–22 | 27–25 |
| Overs–unders | 39–31 | 36–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 3–1 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.