Colorado Avalanche at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Brock NelsonGoals1
- Brock NelsonAssists1
- Brock NelsonPoints2
Canadiens- Juraj SlafkovskyGoals2
- Alexandre CarrierAssists1
- Juraj SlafkovskyPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Brock Nelson Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Patrik Laine Goal Backhand2–1
- SO0:00Charlie Coyle Goal Backhand2–1
- P313:32Christian Dvorak Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Brendan Gallagher (13)4–4
- P39:54Juraj Slafkovský Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (20)4–3
- P39:24Joshua Roy Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (10), Patrik Laine (13)4–2
- P33:58Brock Nelson Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Devon Toews (27)4–1
- P25:51Juraj Slafkovský Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Jayden Struble (9), Nick Suzuki (51)3–1
- P25:24Martin Necas Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (23), Valeri Nichushkin (11)3–0
- P110:09Ryan Lindgren Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (26), Artturi Lehkonen (16)2–0
- P17:35Sam Malinski Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Joel Kiviranta (7), Ross Colton (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:35Sam Malinski Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Joel Kiviranta (7), Ross Colton (13)COL 1 – 0 MTL · COL 61% → 75% +14COL 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P110:09Ryan Lindgren Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (26), Artturi Lehkonen (16)COL 2 – 0 MTL · COL 75% → 86% +11COL 75% → 86%+11 pts
- P25:24Martin Necas Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (23), Valeri Nichushkin (11)COL 3 – 0 MTL · COL 88% → 95% +7COL 88% → 95%+7 pts
- P39:54Juraj Slafkovský Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (20)COL 4 – 3 MTL · MTL 3% → 16% +13MTL 3% → 16%+13 pts
- P313:32Christian Dvorak Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Brendan Gallagher (13)COL 4 – 4 MTL · MTL 11% → 46% +35MTL 11% → 46%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 61%
- ML COL -175 / MTL +150
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- COL: Elo 57.3%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- COL -159
- MTL +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.6 – 2.9 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −2 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +51 Elo | COL 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 62.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.013th of 32 |
| 11th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.3% | Shot share | 47.5%29th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 89.3%28th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 7th of 3219–16 | Road vs home | 18–1614th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–39 | 40–28 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 24–33 | 1–7 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 39–21 |
| Overs–unders | 35–35 | 37–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 0–3 MTL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.