Montreal Canadiens at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Brendan GallagherGoals1
- Jayden StrubleAssists1
- Brendan GallagherPoints1
Islanders- Bo HorvatGoals2
- Tony DeAngeloAssists2
- Bo HorvatPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:37Bo Horvat Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony DeAngelo (10), Ilya Sorokin (2)3–4
- P314:16Brendan Gallagher Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–3
- P34:32Patrik Laine Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (50)2–3
- P32:31Bo Horvat Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (24), Ilya Sorokin (1)1–3
- P216:40Simon Holmstrom Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (23), Anthony DeAngelo (9)1–2
- P111:58Joshua Roy Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Jayden Struble (8), Patrik Laine (12)1–1
- P15:37Anthony Duclair Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (22), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (24)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:58Joshua Roy Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Jayden Struble (8), Patrik Laine (12)MTL 1 – 1 NYI · MTL 30% → 45% +15MTL 30% → 45%+15 pts
- P216:40Simon Holmstrom Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (23), Anthony DeAngelo (9)MTL 1 – 2 NYI · NYI 53% → 75% +21NYI 53% → 75%+21 pts
- P32:31Bo Horvat Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (24), Ilya Sorokin (1)MTL 1 – 3 NYI · NYI 77% → 92% +15NYI 77% → 92%+15 pts
- P314:16Brendan Gallagher Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMTL 3 – 3 NYI · MTL 11% → 48% +37MTL 11% → 48%+37 pts
- OT3:37Bo Horvat Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony DeAngelo (10), Ilya Sorokin (2)MTL 3 – 4 NYI · NYI 51% → >99% +48NYI 51% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 55%
- ML MTL +115 / NYI -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- NYI: Elo 55.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYI -124
- MTL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.6 – 2.9 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | 0 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +38 Elo | NYI 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.726th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.017th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 29th of 3247.3% | Shot share | 50.5%12th of 32 |
| 28th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 90.6%10th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 14th of 3215–18 | Road vs home | 16–1619th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–28 | 34–33 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–7 | 10–22 |
| Underdog | 38–21 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 36–31 | 34–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 3–2 NYI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.