New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Kyle PalmieriGoals1
- Kyle PalmieriAssists2
- Kyle PalmieriPoints3
Penguins- Joona KoppanenGoals1
- Kris LetangAssists1
- Joona KoppanenPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:28Simon Holmstrom Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (23)4–2
- P313:08Pierre Engvall Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Noah Dobson (22), Hudson Fasching (2)3–2
- P35:34Noah Dobson Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Bo Horvat (24), Kyle Palmieri (22)2–2
- P30:17Kyle Palmieri Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P119:45Sidney Crosby Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Timmins (9), Ryan Graves (2)0–2
- P14:40Joona Koppanen Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Vladislav Kolyachonok (5), Kris Letang (20)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:40Joona Koppanen Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Vladislav Kolyachonok (5), Kris Letang (20)NYI 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 49% → 64% +15PIT 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P119:45Sidney Crosby Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Timmins (9), Ryan Graves (2)NYI 0 – 2 PIT · PIT 66% → 81% +14PIT 66% → 81%+14 pts
- P30:17Kyle Palmieri Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYI 1 – 2 PIT · NYI 10% → 27% +16NYI 10% → 27%+16 pts
- P35:34Noah Dobson Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Bo Horvat (24), Kyle Palmieri (22)NYI 2 – 2 PIT · NYI 23% → 51% +27NYI 23% → 51%+27 pts
- P313:08Pierre Engvall Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Noah Dobson (22), Hudson Fasching (2)NYI 3 – 2 PIT · NYI 50% → 86% +36NYI 50% → 86%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 51%
- ML NYI -115 / PIT -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- NYI: Elo 46.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYI -104
- PIT +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.8 – 2.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +2 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +23 Elo | PIT 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.919th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.730th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 48.4%27th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.0%29th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 20th of 3214–20 | Road vs home | 17–1822nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–33 | 35–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–22 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 24–11 | 31–24 |
| Overs–unders | 33–33 | 36–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 4–3 PIT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.