Montreal Canadiens at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Lane HutsonAssists1
- Nick SuzukiPoints1
Blues- Philip BrobergGoals1
- Philip BrobergAssists3
- Robert ThomasPoints4
Scoring summary
- P318:02Zack Bolduc Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (45), Cam Fowler (24)1–6
- P310:12Philip Broberg Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (22), Robert Thomas (44)1–5
- P29:09Alexandre Texier Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (23), Mathieu Joseph (9)1–4
- P23:21Robert Thomas Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (19), Radek Faksa (10)1–3
- P119:54Dylan Holloway Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Philip Broberg (18), Robert Thomas (43)1–2
- P118:54Nick Suzuki Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Lane Hutson (49), Cole Caufield (29)1–1
- P118:07Jordan Kyrou Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (17), Dylan Holloway (36)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:07Jordan Kyrou Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (17), Dylan Holloway (36)MTL 0 – 1 STL · STL 57% → 73% +16STL 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P118:54Nick Suzuki Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Lane Hutson (49), Cole Caufield (29)MTL 1 – 1 STL · MTL 27% → 43% +16MTL 27% → 43%+16 pts
- P119:54Dylan Holloway Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Philip Broberg (18), Robert Thomas (43)MTL 1 – 2 STL · STL 57% → 73% +16STL 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P23:21Robert Thomas Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (19), Radek Faksa (10)MTL 1 – 3 STL · STL 73% → 86% +13STL 73% → 86%+13 pts
- P29:09Alexandre Texier Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (23), Mathieu Joseph (9)MTL 1 – 4 STL · STL 88% → 95% +8STL 88% → 95%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- STL 58%
- ML MTL +130 / STL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- STL: Elo 61.7%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- STL -138
- MTL +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.5 – 3.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +4 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +82 Elo | STL 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 60.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.014th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 29th of 3247.5% | Shot share | 49.3%18th of 32 |
| 28th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 90.1%16th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3215–19 | Road vs home | 19–1716th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–28 | 42–30 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–7 | 10–13 |
| Underdog | 40–21 | 32–17 |
| Overs–unders | 38–31 | 33–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 1–2 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.