Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Ilya MikheyevGoals1
- Ilya MikheyevPoints1
Blues- Nathan WalkerGoals1
- Nathan WalkerAssists1
- Nathan WalkerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P37:43Zack Bolduc Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Philip Broberg (16), Brayden Schenn (30)1–4
- P31:12Nathan Walker Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (13), Justin Faulk (27)1–3
- P219:06Ilya Mikheyev Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P217:20Alexey Toropchenko Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (9), Nathan Walker (6)0–2
- P215:13Robert Thomas Goal (18) Batted, assists: Dylan Holloway (34), Jordan Kyrou (31)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:13Robert Thomas Goal (18) Batted, assists: Dylan Holloway (34), Jordan Kyrou (31)CHI 0 – 1 STL · STL 66% → 84% +18STL 66% → 84%+18 pts
- P217:20Alexey Toropchenko Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (9), Nathan Walker (6)CHI 0 – 2 STL · STL 84% → 94% +10STL 84% → 94%+10 pts
- P219:06Ilya Mikheyev Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCHI 1 – 2 STL · CHI 5% → 16% +11CHI 5% → 16%+11 pts
- P31:12Nathan Walker Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (13), Justin Faulk (27)CHI 1 – 3 STL · STL 84% → 95% +11STL 84% → 95%+11 pts
- P37:43Zack Bolduc Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Philip Broberg (16), Brayden Schenn (30)CHI 1 – 4 STL · STL 97% → >99% +3STL 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- STL 74%
- ML CHI +270 / STL -340
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- STL: Elo 72.9%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -286
- CHI +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.0 – 3.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1389 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −16 | 0 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.39 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +172 Elo | STL 72.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 74.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 74.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.014th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.916th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.9 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3243.6% | Shot share | 49.5%18th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.9%19th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 32nd of 327–28 | Road vs home | 17–1720th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–33 | 40–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 8–13 |
| Underdog | 35–30 | 32–17 |
| Overs–unders | 37–32 | 33–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–5 STL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.