Vancouver Canucks at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Brock BoeserGoals2
- Filip HronekAssists1
- Brock BoeserPoints2
Blues- Tyler TuckerGoals1
- Brayden SchennAssists2
- Tyler TuckerPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:42Philip Broberg Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Brayden Schenn (29), Dylan Holloway (33)3–4
- P319:56Brock Boeser Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (30), Quinn Hughes (50)3–3
- P39:52Dylan Holloway Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (30), Tyler Tucker (3)2–3
- P39:28Tyler Tucker Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (28)2–2
- P36:35Brock Boeser Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (15), Elias Pettersson (29)2–1
- P31:11Kiefer Sherwood Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (23), Marcus Pettersson (20)1–1
- P215:47Zack Bolduc Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (11), Mathieu Joseph (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P36:35Brock Boeser Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (15), Elias Pettersson (29)VAN 2 – 1 STL · VAN 47% → 76% +29VAN 47% → 76%+29 pts
- P39:28Tyler Tucker Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (28)VAN 2 – 2 STL · STL 21% → 53% +32STL 21% → 53%+32 pts
- P39:52Dylan Holloway Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (30), Tyler Tucker (3)VAN 2 – 3 STL · STL 53% → 83% +30STL 53% → 83%+30 pts
- P319:56Brock Boeser Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (30), Quinn Hughes (50)VAN 3 – 3 STL · VAN 0% → 50% +50VAN 0% → 50%+50 pts
- OT3:42Philip Broberg Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Brayden Schenn (29), Dylan Holloway (33)VAN 3 – 4 STL · STL 51% → >99% +48STL 51% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- STL 56%
- ML VAN +120 / STL -140
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- STL: Elo 56.6%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -128
- VAN +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.6 – 2.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +3 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +46 Elo | STL 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 57.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.915th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | 0.013th of 32 |
| 25th of 3248.7% | Shot share | 49.3%18th of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 89.9%19th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 10th of 3217–16 | Road vs home | 16–1723rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–38 | 40–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–22 | 8–12 |
| Underdog | 21–16 | 32–17 |
| Overs–unders | 32–36 | 32–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–3 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.