St. Louis Blues at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals2
- Dylan HollowayAssists3
- Dylan HollowayPoints3
Predators- Brady SkjeiGoals1
- Steven StamkosAssists1
- Brady SkjeiPoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:45Jordan Kyrou Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (32)4–1
- P219:59Brady Skjei Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (21), Filip Forsberg (35)3–1
- P218:50Jordan Kyrou Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (31), Cam Fowler (22)3–0
- P118:16Jake Neighbours Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Justin Faulk (26), Robert Thomas (39)2–0
- P16:04Justin Faulk Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (30), Jake Neighbours (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:04Justin Faulk Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (30), Jake Neighbours (19)STL 1 – 0 NSH · STL 51% → 66% +15STL 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P118:16Jake Neighbours Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Justin Faulk (26), Robert Thomas (39)STL 2 – 0 NSH · STL 68% → 82% +14STL 68% → 82%+14 pts
- P218:50Jordan Kyrou Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (31), Cam Fowler (22)STL 3 – 0 NSH · STL 89% → 97% +8STL 89% → 97%+8 pts
- P219:59Brady Skjei Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (21), Filip Forsberg (35)STL 3 – 1 NSH · NSH 3% → 10% +7NSH 3% → 10%+7 pts
- P313:45Jordan Kyrou Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (32)STL 4 – 1 NSH · STL 99% → >99% +1STL 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML STL -115 / NSH -105
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- STL: Elo 49.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- NSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.8 – 2.7 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −1 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +3 Elo | NSH 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 51.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.224th of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.729th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 50.8%10th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.6%23rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 13th of 3217–18 | Road vs home | 17–1514th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–29 | 26–40 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 10–28 |
| Underdog | 32–17 | 16–12 |
| Overs–unders | 32–36 | 27–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 1–3 NSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.