Nashville Predators at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Nick BlankenburgAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints1
Blues- Justin FaulkGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists3
- Robert ThomasPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:22Brayden Schenn Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (35), Justin Faulk (28)1–4
- P310:30Justin Faulk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (21), Robert Thomas (42)1–3
- P21:04Filip Forsberg Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Blankenburg (9), Steven Stamkos (22)1–2
- P116:57Alexandre Texier Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Robert Thomas (41), Zack Bolduc (15)0–2
- P112:13Jordan Kyrou Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (40), Jake Neighbours (20)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:13Jordan Kyrou Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (40), Jake Neighbours (20)NSH 0 – 1 STL · STL 60% → 75% +15STL 60% → 75%+15 pts
- P116:57Alexandre Texier Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Robert Thomas (41), Zack Bolduc (15)NSH 0 – 2 STL · STL 75% → 87% +12STL 75% → 87%+12 pts
- P21:04Filip Forsberg Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Blankenburg (9), Steven Stamkos (22)NSH 1 – 2 STL · NSH 13% → 25% +12NSH 13% → 25%+12 pts
- P310:30Justin Faulk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (21), Robert Thomas (42)NSH 1 – 3 STL · STL 85% → 97% +13STL 85% → 97%+13 pts
- P319:22Brayden Schenn Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (35), Justin Faulk (28)NSH 1 – 4 STL · STL >99% → 100% +0STL >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- STL 61%
- ML NSH +150 / STL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- STL: Elo 62.1%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- STL -159
- NSH +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.4 – 3.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | STL and NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +3 | NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +86 Elo | STL 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 60.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.014th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.914th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 10th of 3250.8% | Shot share | 49.5%18th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.0%18th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 30th of 328–26 | Road vs home | 18–1716th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–42 | 41–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–29 | 9–13 |
| Underdog | 17–13 | 32–17 |
| Overs–unders | 28–41 | 33–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 3–2 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.