Toronto Maple Leafs at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- John TavaresPoints1
Predators- Luke EvangelistaGoals1
- Luke EvangelistaAssists2
- Luke EvangelistaPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:23Filip Forsberg Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Spencer Stastney (3), Michael McCarron (7)2–5
- P310:17Luke Evangelista Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (37)2–4
- P219:13Filip Forsberg Goal (26) Poke, assists: Luke Evangelista (15), Nick Blankenburg (8)2–3
- P29:15Kieffer Bellows Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Smith (7), Fedor Svechkov (7)2–2
- P21:39Michael Bunting Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Fedor Svechkov (6), Luke Evangelista (14)2–1
- P113:05Mitch Marner Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (36)2–0
- P19:16John Tavares Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (63), Auston Matthews (35)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:16John Tavares Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (63), Auston Matthews (35)TOR 1 – 0 NSH · TOR 60% → 74% +14TOR 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P21:39Michael Bunting Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Fedor Svechkov (6), Luke Evangelista (14)TOR 2 – 1 NSH · NSH 13% → 25% +12NSH 13% → 25%+12 pts
- P29:15Kieffer Bellows Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Smith (7), Fedor Svechkov (7)TOR 2 – 2 NSH · NSH 24% → 42% +18NSH 24% → 42%+18 pts
- P219:13Filip Forsberg Goal (26) Poke, assists: Luke Evangelista (15), Nick Blankenburg (8)TOR 2 – 3 NSH · NSH 44% → 68% +24NSH 44% → 68%+24 pts
- P310:17Luke Evangelista Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (37)TOR 2 – 4 NSH · NSH 79% → 96% +17NSH 79% → 96%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 61%
- ML TOR -170 / NSH +145
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 54.7%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- TOR -154
- NSH +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.1 – 2.4 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | −2 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +33 Elo | TOR 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.532nd of 32 |
| 15th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.730th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.1% | Shot share | 50.8%9th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 89.5%24th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 4th of 3220–13 | Road vs home | 17–1720th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–35 | 26–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–29 | 10–29 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 16–13 |
| Overs–unders | 36–33 | 27–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–1 NSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.