Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals2
- Jake McCabeAssists3
- John TavaresPoints3
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:25Chris Kreider Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (44), Vincent Trocheck (28)4–3
- P214:26Matthew Knies Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (35)4–2
- P24:16John Tavares Goal (29) Slap Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (12), Jake McCabe (18)3–2
- P21:22Artemi Panarin Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (27), Adam Fox (45)2–2
- P119:50Bobby McMann Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Jake McCabe (17), John Tavares (31)2–1
- P119:12Will Borgen Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Carson Soucy (8), Jonny Brodzinski (7)1–1
- P112:30John Tavares Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (16), William Nylander (34)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:12Will Borgen Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Carson Soucy (8), Jonny Brodzinski (7)TOR 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 37% → 54% +17NYR 37% → 54%+17 pts
- P119:50Bobby McMann Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Jake McCabe (17), John Tavares (31)TOR 2 – 1 NYR · TOR 46% → 63% +18TOR 46% → 63%+18 pts
- P21:22Artemi Panarin Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (27), Adam Fox (45)TOR 2 – 2 NYR · NYR 36% → 54% +18NYR 36% → 54%+18 pts
- P24:16John Tavares Goal (29) Slap Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (12), Jake McCabe (18)TOR 3 – 2 NYR · TOR 46% → 64% +19TOR 46% → 64%+19 pts
- P214:26Matthew Knies Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (35)TOR 4 – 2 NYR · TOR 68% → 85% +17TOR 68% → 85%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 55%
- ML TOR +115 / NYR -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- NYR: Elo 56.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYR -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.6 – 2.9 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +3 | TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +42 Elo | NYR 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 15th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.018th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.3 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.1% | Shot share | 48.8%24th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 90.5%14th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 4th of 3219–13 | Road vs home | 16–1926th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–35 | 28–41 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–29 | 17–31 |
| Underdog | 12–6 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 35–33 | 30–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–2 NYR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.