Calgary Flames at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Nazem KadriGoals1
- MacKenzie WeegarAssists2
- Nazem KadriPoints2
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Will CuylleAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P118:03Matt Coronato Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (26), MacKenzie Weegar (34)2–1
- P110:22Nazem Kadri Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (33), Connor Zary (13)1–1
- P11:13Artemi Panarin Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Urho Vaakanainen (9), Will Cuylle (20)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:13Artemi Panarin Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Urho Vaakanainen (9), Will Cuylle (20)CGY 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 70% → 82% +11NYR 70% → 82%+11 pts
- P110:22Nazem Kadri Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (33), Connor Zary (13)CGY 1 – 1 NYR · CGY 19% → 31% +13CGY 19% → 31%+13 pts
- P118:03Matt Coronato Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (26), MacKenzie Weegar (34)CGY 2 – 1 NYR · CGY 33% → 49% +17CGY 33% → 49%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 70%
- ML CGY +225 / NYR -275
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- NYR: Elo 68.6%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- NYR -238
- CGY +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.1 – 3.4 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CGY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +3 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +136 Elo | NYR 68.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 67.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 68.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.013th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.019th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 49.1%22nd of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 90.4%14th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 23rd of 3212–20 | Road vs home | 16–1826th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–34 | 28–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 17–30 |
| Underdog | 23–20 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 26–40 | 30–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 1–2 NYR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.