Anaheim Ducks at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Trevor ZegrasGoals1
- Mason McTavishAssists2
- Trevor ZegrasPoints2
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals1
- Jonathan MarchessaultAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:24Alex Killorn Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (29)4–1
- P215:36Trevor Zegras Goal (8) Batted, assists: Drew Helleson (7), Mason McTavish (25)3–1
- P213:19Troy Terry Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (15), Pavel Mintyukov (12)2–1
- P27:29Jackson LaCombe Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (24), Brett Leason (12)1–1
- P17:07Steven Stamkos Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (36), Jonathan Marchessault (30)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:07Steven Stamkos Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (36), Jonathan Marchessault (30)ANA 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 60% → 74% +14NSH 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P27:29Jackson LaCombe Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (24), Brett Leason (12)ANA 1 – 1 NSH · ANA 24% → 42% +18ANA 24% → 42%+18 pts
- P213:19Troy Terry Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (15), Pavel Mintyukov (12)ANA 2 – 1 NSH · ANA 43% → 64% +21ANA 43% → 64%+21 pts
- P215:36Trevor Zegras Goal (8) Batted, assists: Drew Helleson (7), Mason McTavish (25)ANA 3 – 1 NSH · ANA 66% → 83% +18ANA 66% → 83%+18 pts
- P319:24Alex Killorn Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (29)ANA 4 – 1 NSH · ANA >99% → 100% +0ANA >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 61%
- ML ANA +145 / NSH -170
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- NSH: Elo 59.4%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- NSH -154
- ANA +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.6 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +1 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +66 Elo | NSH 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 61.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.632nd of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.729th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.9% | Shot share | 50.8%9th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 89.5%25th of 32 |
| 24th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3213–22 | Road vs home | 17–1616th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 47–21 | 26–41 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 10–28 |
| Underdog | 44–19 | 16–13 |
| Overs–unders | 26–42 | 27–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 4–1 NSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 5.