Philadelphia Flyers at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Ryan PoehlingGoals1
- Jakob PelletierAssists1
- Sean CouturierPoints1
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals2
- John TavaresAssists2
- John TavaresPoints4
Scoring summary
- P311:32Max Domi Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (19)2–7
- P218:17Sean Couturier Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Jamie Drysdale (13), Matvei Michkov (31)2–6
- P215:08David Kampf Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Calle Jarnkrok (3), Steven Lorentz (10)1–6
- P211:55William Nylander Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (33), Bobby McMann (13)1–5
- P27:49John Tavares Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (64), Matthew Knies (22)1–4
- P21:45Bobby McMann Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: John Tavares (32), William Nylander (37)1–3
- P115:11William Nylander Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (21), Auston Matthews (37)1–2
- P110:37John Tavares Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (36)1–1
- P17:59Ryan Poehling Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Pelletier (10), Rodrigo Abols (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:59Ryan Poehling Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Pelletier (10), Rodrigo Abols (2)PHI 1 – 0 TOR · PHI 32% → 47% +15PHI 32% → 47%+15 pts
- P110:37John Tavares Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (36)PHI 1 – 1 TOR · TOR 52% → 68% +15TOR 52% → 68%+15 pts
- P115:11William Nylander Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (21), Auston Matthews (37)PHI 1 – 2 TOR · TOR 67% → 81% +14TOR 67% → 81%+14 pts
- P21:45Bobby McMann Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: John Tavares (32), William Nylander (37)PHI 1 – 3 TOR · TOR 81% → 91% +10TOR 81% → 91%+10 pts
- P27:49John Tavares Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (64), Matthew Knies (22)PHI 1 – 4 TOR · TOR 91% → 97% +5TOR 91% → 97%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 69%
- ML PHI +215 / TOR -260
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 68.6%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- TOR -228
- PHI +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.2 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +8 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +136 Elo | TOR 68.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 67.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 67.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.016th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 49.1%20th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 90.7%7th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–9 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 25th of 3212–24 | Road vs home | 22–1411th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–38 | 34–36 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–14 | 21–30 |
| Underdog | 27–24 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 35–37 | 37–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–4 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.