Philadelphia Flyers at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Jamie DrysdaleGoals1
- Sean CouturierAssists2
- Jamie DrysdalePoints2
Blackhawks- Ryan DonatoGoals2
- Tyler BertuzziAssists2
- Tyler BertuzziPoints3
Scoring summary
- P32:13Lukas Reichel Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Maroon (13), Alex Vlasic (24)4–7
- P213:27Ryan Donato Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (40), Tyler Bertuzzi (21)4–6
- P210:14Travis Konecny Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Jamie Drysdale (12), Sean Couturier (25)4–5
- P26:43Ryan Donato Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (39), Connor Bedard (36)3–5
- P22:37Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Philipp Kurashev (6), Joseph Veleno (6)3–4
- P118:12Connor Bedard Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–3
- P111:59Bobby Brink Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Noah Cates (15), Tyson Foerster (16)3–2
- P18:13Travis Sanheim Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (44), Matvei Michkov (30)2–2
- P18:01Joseph Veleno Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (20), Philipp Kurashev (5)1–2
- P17:14Patrick Maroon Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Nick Foligno (16), Ilya Mikheyev (12)1–1
- P13:59Jamie Drysdale Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (29), Sean Couturier (24)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:12Connor Bedard Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePHI 3 – 3 CHI · CHI 29% → 45% +16CHI 29% → 45%+16 pts
- P22:37Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Philipp Kurashev (6), Joseph Veleno (6)PHI 3 – 4 CHI · CHI 45% → 63% +18CHI 45% → 63%+18 pts
- P26:43Ryan Donato Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (39), Connor Bedard (36)PHI 3 – 5 CHI · CHI 65% → 81% +16CHI 65% → 81%+16 pts
- P210:14Travis Konecny Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Jamie Drysdale (12), Sean Couturier (25)PHI 4 – 5 CHI · PHI 18% → 34% +16PHI 18% → 34%+16 pts
- P213:27Ryan Donato Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (40), Tyler Bertuzzi (21)PHI 4 – 6 CHI · CHI 67% → 84% +17CHI 67% → 84%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 56%
- ML PHI -140 / CHI +120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 49.9%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -128
- CHI +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.9 – 2.6 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1387 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | CHI and PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +12 | PHI: Ivan Fedotov: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI 0 Elo | CHI 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.931st of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 43.7%32nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 89.5%24th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–9 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 32 |
| 25th of 3212–23 | Road vs home | 13–2131st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–37 | 36–34 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–13 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 27–24 | 35–31 |
| Overs–unders | 34–37 | 37–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–1 CHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.