Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Kevin HayesGoals1
- Conor TimminsAssists1
- Kevin HayesPoints1
Sabres- Jiri KulichGoals2
- Bowen ByramAssists2
- Jiri KulichPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:54Kevin Hayes Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Timmins (10), Ryan Graves (3)3–7
- P32:16Blake Lizotte Goal (10) , assists: none2–7
- P219:34Alex Tuch Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Power (30), Tyson Kozak (2)1–7
- P212:02Tyson Kozak Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Beck Malenstyn (6), Peyton Krebs (14)1–6
- P211:34Jiri Kulich Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (28), Jack Quinn (17)1–5
- P25:20Mattias Samuelsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Isak Rosen (1), Rasmus Dahlin (44)1–4
- P23:36Jiri Kulich Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (27), Tage Thompson (27)1–3
- P111:11Sidney Crosby Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (31), Matt Grzelcyk (34)1–2
- P14:44Peyton Krebs Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Alex Tuch (25), Connor Clifton (11)0–2
- P10:27Tage Thompson Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (15), Rasmus Dahlin (43)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:27Tage Thompson Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (15), Rasmus Dahlin (43)PIT 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 55% → 69% +14BUF 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P14:44Peyton Krebs Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Alex Tuch (25), Connor Clifton (11)PIT 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 69% → 81% +12BUF 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P111:11Sidney Crosby Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (31), Matt Grzelcyk (34)PIT 1 – 2 BUF · PIT 18% → 30% +12PIT 18% → 30%+12 pts
- P23:36Jiri Kulich Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (27), Tage Thompson (27)PIT 1 – 3 BUF · BUF 72% → 85% +13BUF 72% → 85%+13 pts
- P25:20Mattias Samuelsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Isak Rosen (1), Rasmus Dahlin (44)PIT 1 – 4 BUF · BUF 86% → 94% +8BUF 86% → 94%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 55%
- ML PIT +115 / BUF -135
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- BUF: Elo 56.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BUF -124
- PIT +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.1 – 3.4 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −4 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · BUF: James Reimer: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +43 Elo | BUF 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.112th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 27th of 3248.0% | Shot share | 48.9%22nd of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 88.9%31st of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 28th of 3211–25 | Road vs home | 18–1616th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–36 | 35–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–10 | 5–16 |
| Underdog | 32–26 | 30–19 |
| Overs–unders | 40–33 | 41–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–2 BUF in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.