Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals1
- Matt GrzelcykAssists1
- Bryan RustPoints1
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints3
Scoring summary
- P314:15Bryan Rust Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (33), Sidney Crosby (54)1–6
- P219:19Brandon Hagel Goal (33) Tip-In, assists: Nick Perbix (12), Emil Lilleberg (17)0–6
- P215:31Nikita Kucherov Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (28), Oliver Bjorkstrand (23)0–5
- P116:00Brayden Point Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (34), Nikita Kucherov (70)0–4
- P115:12Anthony Cirelli Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (46), J.J. Moser (10)0–3
- P113:30Ryan McDonagh Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (69), Erik Cernak (17)0–2
- P112:13Anthony Cirelli Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Paul (18), Ryan McDonagh (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:13Anthony Cirelli Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Paul (18), Ryan McDonagh (22)PIT 0 – 1 TB · TB 70% → 83% +12TB 70% → 83%+12 pts
- P113:30Ryan McDonagh Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (69), Erik Cernak (17)PIT 0 – 2 TB · TB 83% → 91% +9TB 83% → 91%+9 pts
- P115:12Anthony Cirelli Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (46), J.J. Moser (10)PIT 0 – 3 TB · TB 91% → 96% +5TB 91% → 96%+5 pts
- P116:00Brayden Point Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (34), Nikita Kucherov (70)PIT 0 – 4 TB · TB 96% → 99% +2TB 96% → 99%+2 pts
- P215:31Nikita Kucherov Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (28), Oliver Bjorkstrand (23)PIT 0 – 5 TB · TB >99% → >99% +0TB >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- TB 72%
- ML PIT +250 / TB -300
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- TB: Elo 67.4%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -263
- PIT +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.6 – 3.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +6 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +126 Elo | TB 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 74.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 72.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.52nd of 32 |
| 31st of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.79th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.84th of 32 |
| 27th of 3248.1% | Shot share | 50.6%12th of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 91.2%2nd of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 28th of 3211–24 | Road vs home | 24–106th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–35 | 36–34 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–10 | 26–24 |
| Underdog | 32–25 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders | 39–33 | 30–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–3 TB in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.