Pittsburgh Penguins at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals2
- Bryan RustAssists1
- Bryan RustPoints3
Panthers- Nate SchmidtAssists1
- Sergei BobrovskyPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Aleksander Barkov Goal Backhand0–1
- P314:29Anton Lundell Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (14), Nate Schmidt (13)3–3
- P29:25Sam Reinhart Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (45), Sergei Bobrovsky (1)3–2
- P26:51Evgeni Malkin Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (29), Matt Grzelcyk (32)3–1
- P119:25Bryan Rust Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: Sidney Crosby (53), Rickard Rakell (30)2–1
- P114:26Bryan Rust Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Erik Karlsson (40), Sidney Crosby (52)1–1
- P111:25Sam Reinhart Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:26Bryan Rust Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Erik Karlsson (40), Sidney Crosby (52)PIT 1 – 1 FLA · PIT 19% → 33% +13PIT 19% → 33%+13 pts
- P119:25Bryan Rust Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: Sidney Crosby (53), Rickard Rakell (30)PIT 2 – 1 FLA · PIT 34% → 51% +17PIT 34% → 51%+17 pts
- P26:51Evgeni Malkin Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (29), Matt Grzelcyk (32)PIT 3 – 1 FLA · PIT 54% → 73% +18PIT 54% → 73%+18 pts
- P29:25Sam Reinhart Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (45), Sergei Bobrovsky (1)PIT 3 – 2 FLA · FLA 25% → 44% +19FLA 25% → 44%+19 pts
- P314:29Anton Lundell Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (14), Nate Schmidt (13)PIT 3 – 3 FLA · FLA 15% → 56% +41FLA 15% → 56%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 69%
- ML PIT +215 / FLA -260
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- FLA: Elo 66.1%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- FLA -228
- PIT +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.2 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +13 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +116 Elo | FLA 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 73.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 71.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.29th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.78th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.57th of 32 |
| 27th of 3248.1% | Shot share | 54.3%2nd of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 90.7%10th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 26th of 3211–23 | Road vs home | 21–129th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–35 | 33–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–10 | 25–34 |
| Underdog | 31–25 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 38–33 | 33–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–4 FLA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.