Columbus Blue Jackets at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Kent JohnsonGoals1
- Damon SeversonAssists1
- Boone JennerPoints1
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals1
- Bryan RustAssists1
- Bryan RustPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:03Bryan Rust Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (29), Alex Nedeljkovic (2)3–6
- P33:45Kent Johnson Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (10), Yegor Chinakhov (8)3–5
- P215:31Sidney Crosby Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (31)2–5
- P28:15Bokondji Imama Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (17), Kevin Hayes (10)2–4
- P21:35Justin Danforth Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Mathieu Olivier (11), Damon Severson (19)2–3
- P114:53Rickard Rakell Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (28), Sidney Crosby (51)1–3
- P114:07Boone Jenner Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Denton Mateychuk (4), Ivan Provorov (22)1–2
- P113:51Noel Acciari Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Blake Lizotte (9)0–2
- P15:28Evgeni Malkin Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Philip Tomasino (11), Connor Dewar (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:28Evgeni Malkin Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Philip Tomasino (11), Connor Dewar (4)CBJ 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 51% → 66% +15PIT 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P114:07Boone Jenner Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Denton Mateychuk (4), Ivan Provorov (22)CBJ 1 – 2 PIT · CBJ 20% → 33% +13CBJ 20% → 33%+13 pts
- P114:53Rickard Rakell Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (28), Sidney Crosby (51)CBJ 1 – 3 PIT · PIT 67% → 81% +13PIT 67% → 81%+13 pts
- P21:35Justin Danforth Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Mathieu Olivier (11), Damon Severson (19)CBJ 2 – 3 PIT · CBJ 18% → 32% +14CBJ 18% → 32%+14 pts
- P28:15Bokondji Imama Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (17), Kevin Hayes (10)CBJ 2 – 4 PIT · PIT 70% → 85% +15PIT 70% → 85%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 51%
- ML CBJ -105 / PIT -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- PIT: Elo 57.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -104
- CBJ +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.2 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | 0 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +50 Elo | PIT 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 57.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.919th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.729th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 48.2%27th of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.1%29th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 27th of 3211–23 | Road vs home | 17–1925th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–27 | 35–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 36–22 | 31–25 |
| Overs–unders | 38–30 | 37–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 3–3 PIT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.