Carolina Hurricanes at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Brent BurnsGoals1
- Jack RoslovicAssists1
- Brent BurnsPoints1
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Alex DeBrincatAssists1
- Alex DeBrincatPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:59Alex DeBrincat Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (36)3–5
- P312:44Brent Burns Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Jack Roslovic (16), Jaccob Slavin (20)3–4
- P212:36Eric Robinson Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Justin Robidas (1), Jaccob Slavin (19)2–4
- P29:26Michael Rasmussen Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Tyler Motte (5)1–4
- P29:05Patrick Kane Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: none1–3
- P21:57Jackson Blake Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (31)1–2
- P19:29Marco Kasper Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Elmer Soderblom (7), Lucas Raymond (48)0–2
- P19:03Ben Chiarot Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (30), Dylan Larkin (35)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:03Ben Chiarot Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (30), Dylan Larkin (35)CAR 0 – 1 DET · DET 39% → 55% +16DET 39% → 55%+16 pts
- P19:29Marco Kasper Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Elmer Soderblom (7), Lucas Raymond (48)CAR 0 – 2 DET · DET 55% → 70% +15DET 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P21:57Jackson Blake Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (31)CAR 1 – 2 DET · CAR 25% → 41% +16CAR 25% → 41%+16 pts
- P29:05Patrick Kane Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: noneCAR 1 – 3 DET · DET 62% → 79% +17DET 62% → 79%+17 pts
- P312:44Brent Burns Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Jack Roslovic (16), Jaccob Slavin (20)CAR 3 – 4 DET · CAR 2% → 17% +15CAR 2% → 17%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 61%
- ML CAR -175 / DET +150
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- CAR: Elo 55.0%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- CAR -159
- DET +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.1 – 2.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +5 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +35 Elo | CAR 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 57.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 1st of 3255.9% | Shot share | 48.6%25th of 32 |
| 18th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 89.6%21st of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 15th of 3216–19 | Road vs home | 19–1918th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–38 | 43–31 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 33–35 | 6–13 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 37–18 |
| Overs–unders | 31–43 | 37–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 5–0 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.