Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Michael AmadioGoals1
- Matthew HighmoreAssists1
- David PerronPoints1
Red Wings- Patrick KaneGoals1
- Marco KasperAssists1
- Patrick KanePoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:30Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (21), Craig Smith (9)4–3
- P311:50Lucas Raymond Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Kasper (15)4–2
- P38:44Michael Amadio Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Highmore (4)4–1
- P35:25Patrick Kane Goal (19) Deflected, assists: Alex DeBrincat (29), Lucas Raymond (47)3–1
- P21:33David Perron Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (38)3–0
- P113:01Tim Stützle Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P15:49Thomas Chabot Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (20)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:49Thomas Chabot Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (20)OTT 1 – 0 DET · OTT 55% → 69% +14OTT 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P113:01Tim Stützle Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: noneOTT 2 – 0 DET · OTT 70% → 83% +13OTT 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P21:33David Perron Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (38)OTT 3 – 0 DET · OTT 85% → 93% +8OTT 85% → 93%+8 pts
- P35:25Patrick Kane Goal (19) Deflected, assists: Alex DeBrincat (29), Lucas Raymond (47)OTT 3 – 1 DET · DET 1% → 6% +5DET 1% → 6%+5 pts
- P315:30Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (21), Craig Smith (9)OTT 4 – 3 DET · DET <1% → 9% +8DET <1% → 9%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 55%
- ML OTT -135 / DET +115
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- OTT: Elo 46.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- OTT -124
- DET +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.9 – 2.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +1 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +22 Elo | DET 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 51.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 48.7%24th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.5%23rd of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 16th of 3217–21 | Road vs home | 18–1820th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–40 | 41–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 6–12 |
| Underdog | 19–12 | 35–18 |
| Overs–unders | 32–38 | 36–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 5–2 DET in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.