Detroit Red Wings at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- J.T. CompherGoals1
- J.T. CompherAssists1
- J.T. CompherPoints2
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals1
- Jonathan DrouinAssists2
- Jonathan DrouinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:56Logan O'Connor Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (29)2–5
- P316:53Austin Watson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (20), Simon Edvinsson (22)2–4
- P38:34Nathan MacKinnon Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (25), Martin Necas (53)1–4
- P24:39Devon Toews Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (52), Brock Nelson (27)1–3
- P112:52Valeri Nichushkin Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Drouin (24), Nathan MacKinnon (78)1–2
- P16:44Cale Makar Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (28)1–1
- P16:00J.T. Compher Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (8), Vladimir Tarasenko (20)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:00J.T. Compher Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (8), Vladimir Tarasenko (20)DET 1 – 0 COL · DET 26% → 40% +14DET 26% → 40%+14 pts
- P16:44Cale Makar Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (28)DET 1 – 1 COL · COL 60% → 74% +14COL 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P112:52Valeri Nichushkin Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Drouin (24), Nathan MacKinnon (78)DET 1 – 2 COL · COL 72% → 84% +12COL 72% → 84%+12 pts
- P24:39Devon Toews Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (52), Brock Nelson (27)DET 1 – 3 COL · COL 84% → 93% +9COL 84% → 93%+9 pts
- P38:34Nathan MacKinnon Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (25), Martin Necas (53)DET 1 – 4 COL · COL 98% → >99% +2COL 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- COL 75%
- ML DET +280 / COL -360
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- COL: Elo 68.4%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- COL -297
- DET +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.5 – 4.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | 0 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +134 Elo | COL 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 72.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 71.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.46th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.58th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.7% | Shot share | 53.4%5th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.0%17th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 18th of 3215–19 | Road vs home | 23–127th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–29 | 31–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–12 | 24–34 |
| Underdog | 35–17 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 35–35 | 36–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–2 COL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.