Detroit Red Wings at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Simon EdvinssonAssists2
- Alex DeBrincatPoints2
Utah HC- Dylan GuentherGoals1
- Clayton KellerAssists1
- Dylan GuentherPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:32Tyler Motte Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Craig Smith (8)5–1
- P317:06Alex DeBrincat Goal (33) Backhand, assists: Patrick Kane (32)4–1
- P39:51Austin Watson Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Simon Edvinsson (21)3–1
- P21:34Marco Kasper Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (28), Simon Edvinsson (20)2–1
- P15:08Elmer Soderblom Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (19)1–1
- P13:46Dylan Guenther Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (54), Logan Cooley (33)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:46Dylan Guenther Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (54), Logan Cooley (33)DET 0 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 60% → 73% +14UTAH 60% → 73%+14 pts
- P15:08Elmer Soderblom Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (19)DET 1 – 1 UTAH · DET 27% → 41% +14DET 27% → 41%+14 pts
- P21:34Marco Kasper Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (28), Simon Edvinsson (20)DET 2 – 1 UTAH · DET 42% → 60% +18DET 42% → 60%+18 pts
- P39:51Austin Watson Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Simon Edvinsson (21)DET 3 – 1 UTAH · DET 78% → 95% +17DET 78% → 95%+17 pts
- P317:06Alex DeBrincat Goal (33) Backhand, assists: Patrick Kane (32)DET 4 – 1 UTAH · DET >99% → >99% +0DET >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 60%
- ML DET +140 / UTAH -165
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- UTAH: Elo 57.3%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -149
- DET +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.5 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −2 | DET: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +51 Elo | UTAH 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 61.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.019th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.8% | Shot share | 50.4%14th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.0%18th of 32 |
| 28th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 21st of 3214–19 | Road vs home | 15–2029th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–29 | 32–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–12 | 11–24 |
| Underdog | 34–17 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders | 35–34 | 31–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–1 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.