Detroit Red Wings at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- J.T. CompherGoals1
- Vladimir TarasenkoAssists1
- J.T. CompherPoints1
Blues- Cam FowlerGoals1
- Cam FowlerAssists1
- Cam FowlerPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:27Cam Fowler Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Robert Thomas (50)1–2
- P319:31Jordan Kyrou Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (25), Dylan Holloway (37)1–1
- P35:13J.T. Compher Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonatan Berggren (10), Vladimir Tarasenko (21)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P35:13J.T. Compher Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonatan Berggren (10), Vladimir Tarasenko (21)DET 1 – 0 STL · DET 44% → 72% +28DET 44% → 72%+28 pts
- P319:31Jordan Kyrou Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (25), Dylan Holloway (37)DET 1 – 1 STL · STL <1% → 51% +51STL <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT3:27Cam Fowler Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Robert Thomas (50)DET 1 – 2 STL · STL 52% → 99% +47STL 52% → 99%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- STL 61%
- ML DET +150 / STL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- STL: Elo 60.7%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- STL -159
- DET +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.4 – 3.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +6 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +75 Elo | STL 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 57.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.113th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.811th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.8% | Shot share | 49.5%18th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.2%16th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 19th of 3215–20 | Road vs home | 20–1715th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–31 | 44–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–13 | 11–14 |
| Underdog | 36–18 | 33–17 |
| Overs–unders | 37–36 | 34–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–1 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.