St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Pavel BuchnevichGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists2
- Robert ThomasPoints2
AvalancheScoring summary
- P38:54Pavel Buchnevich Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Suter (13), Robert Thomas (49)2–1
- P112:09Nathan MacKinnon Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Devon Toews (30)1–1
- P110:57Zack Bolduc Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (48), Oskar Sundqvist (12)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:57Zack Bolduc Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (48), Oskar Sundqvist (12)STL 1 – 0 COL · STL 37% → 53% +16STL 37% → 53%+16 pts
- P112:09Nathan MacKinnon Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Devon Toews (30)STL 1 – 1 COL · COL 46% → 62% +16COL 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P38:54Pavel Buchnevich Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Suter (13), Robert Thomas (49)STL 2 – 1 COL · STL 44% → 76% +32STL 44% → 76%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 64%
- ML STL +165 / COL -200
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- COL: Elo 61.3%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- COL -177
- STL +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.4 – 3.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +3 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +80 Elo | COL 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 67.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 66.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.46th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.66th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 53.4%4th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 90.1%17th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 10th of 3219–18 | Road vs home | 25–127th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–31 | 33–40 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–14 | 26–34 |
| Underdog | 32–17 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 34–40 | 37–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–4 COL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.