St. Louis Blues at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Dylan HollowayGoals2
- Robert ThomasAssists2
- Dylan HollowayPoints2
Predators- Fedor SvechkovGoals1
- Andreas EnglundAssists1
- Brady SkjeiPoints1
Scoring summary
- P312:19Dylan Holloway Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (47), Nick Leddy (2)3–2
- P311:57Cam Fowler Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (23), Brayden Schenn (31)2–2
- P210:35Dylan Holloway Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (46)1–2
- P110:16Brady Skjei Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (16), Kieffer Bellows (2)0–2
- P12:48Fedor Svechkov Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (16), Andreas Englund (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:48Fedor Svechkov Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (16), Andreas Englund (1)STL 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 45% → 60% +15NSH 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P110:16Brady Skjei Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (16), Kieffer Bellows (2)STL 0 – 2 NSH · NSH 61% → 75% +14NSH 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P210:35Dylan Holloway Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (46)STL 1 – 2 NSH · STL 17% → 33% +16STL 17% → 33%+16 pts
- P311:57Cam Fowler Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (23), Brayden Schenn (31)STL 2 – 2 NSH · STL 17% → 52% +35STL 17% → 52%+35 pts
- P312:19Dylan Holloway Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (47), Nick Leddy (2)STL 3 – 2 NSH · STL 52% → 86% +34STL 52% → 86%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- STL 55%
- ML STL -135 / NSH +115
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- STL: Elo 52.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -124
- NSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.9 – 2.6 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +1 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +18 Elo | STL 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.632nd of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.727th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 50.8%10th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 89.6%19th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 11th of 3218–18 | Road vs home | 18–1717th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–30 | 28–43 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–13 | 10–29 |
| Underdog | 32–17 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders | 34–39 | 28–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–3 NSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.