Nashville Predators at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Luke EvangelistaGoals2
- Marc Del GaizoAssists2
- Luke EvangelistaPoints2
Hurricanes- Taylor HallGoals1
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists1
- Taylor HallPoints1
Scoring summary
- P312:48Luke Evangelista Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Marc Del Gaizo (7), Ryan O'Reilly (27)3–1
- P26:02Taylor Hall Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Seth Jarvis (27), Shayne Gostisbehere (33)2–1
- P24:01Luke Evangelista Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (38), Marc Del Gaizo (6)2–0
- P15:14Michael Bunting Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Kieffer Bellows (1), Brady Skjei (17)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:14Michael Bunting Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Kieffer Bellows (1), Brady Skjei (17)NSH 1 – 0 CAR · NSH 31% → 45% +14NSH 31% → 45%+14 pts
- P24:01Luke Evangelista Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (38), Marc Del Gaizo (6)NSH 2 – 0 CAR · NSH 53% → 70% +18NSH 53% → 70%+18 pts
- P26:02Taylor Hall Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Seth Jarvis (27), Shayne Gostisbehere (33)NSH 2 – 1 CAR · CAR 28% → 46% +18CAR 28% → 46%+18 pts
- P312:48Luke Evangelista Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Marc Del Gaizo (7), Ryan O'Reilly (27)NSH 3 – 1 CAR · NSH 81% → 97% +16NSH 81% → 97%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 70%
- ML NSH +220 / CAR -270
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- CAR: Elo 68.3%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- CAR -234
- NSH +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.2 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −4 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +133 Elo | CAR 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 71.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 70.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.28th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.66th of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.0% | Shot share | 55.8%1st of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.0%17th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 30th of 328–27 | Road vs home | 27–82nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–43 | 33–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–29 | 30–34 |
| Underdog | 17–14 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 28–42 | 29–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 2–1 CAR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.