Carolina Hurricanes at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Mark JankowskiGoals1
- Eric RobinsonAssists1
- Dmitry OrlovPoints1
Kings- Anze KopitarGoals1
- Anze KopitarAssists1
- Anze KopitarPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:11Mark Jankowski Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (17), Scott Morrow (3)2–7
- P318:03Kevin Fiala Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (18), Quinton Byfield (24)1–7
- P214:17Dmitry Orlov Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Jalen Chatfield (11), Logan Stankoven (22)1–6
- P28:41Quinton Byfield Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (21)0–6
- P26:49Tanner Jeannot Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Turcotte (15), Drew Doughty (9)0–5
- P25:58Trevor Moore Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (29), Warren Foegele (19)0–4
- P119:55Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (38)0–3
- P114:39Anze Kopitar Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (15), Drew Doughty (8)0–2
- P13:03Adrian Kempe Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Samuel Helenius (3), Tanner Jeannot (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:03Adrian Kempe Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Samuel Helenius (3), Tanner Jeannot (5)CAR 0 – 1 LA · LA 50% → 65% +15LA 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P114:39Anze Kopitar Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (15), Drew Doughty (8)CAR 0 – 2 LA · LA 66% → 80% +14LA 66% → 80%+14 pts
- P119:55Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (38)CAR 0 – 3 LA · LA 81% → 91% +10LA 81% → 91%+10 pts
- P25:58Trevor Moore Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (29), Warren Foegele (19)CAR 0 – 4 LA · LA 93% → 97% +5LA 93% → 97%+5 pts
- P26:49Tanner Jeannot Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Turcotte (15), Drew Doughty (9)CAR 0 – 5 LA · LA 98% → >99% +2LA 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- LA 50%
- ML CAR -110 / LA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- LA: Elo 48.9%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- LA -100
- CAR -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.8 – 2.8 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | 0 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +8 Elo | CAR 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 51.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.822nd of 32 |
| 5th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 1st of 3255.8% | Shot share | 52.4%6th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.6%11th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 15th of 3215–18 | Road vs home | 23–72nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–36 | 31–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–34 | 14–26 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 17–10 |
| Overs–unders | 27–41 | 26–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 1–2 LA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.