Carolina Hurricanes at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Sean WalkerGoals1
- Jackson BlakeAssists1
- Sean WalkerPoints1
Sharks- William EklundGoals1
- Ty DellandreaAssists1
- William EklundPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:18Sean Walker Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (20), Shayne Gostisbehere (31)3–1
- P34:58Sebastian Aho Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (13), Brent Burns (19)2–1
- P210:31Seth Jarvis Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: none1–1
- P113:00William Eklund Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Dellandrea (6)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:00William Eklund Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Dellandrea (6)CAR 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 28% → 43% +15SJ 28% → 43%+15 pts
- P210:31Seth Jarvis Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: noneCAR 1 – 1 SJ · CAR 48% → 68% +20CAR 48% → 68%+20 pts
- P34:58Sebastian Aho Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (13), Brent Burns (19)CAR 2 – 1 SJ · CAR 63% → 86% +23CAR 63% → 86%+23 pts
- P314:18Sean Walker Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (20), Shayne Gostisbehere (31)CAR 3 – 1 SJ · CAR 92% → >99% +8CAR 92% → >99%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 75%
- ML CAR -360 / SJ +280
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- CAR: Elo 69.6%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- CAR -297
- SJ +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.5 – 2.0 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1372 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +16 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · SJ: Georgi Romanov (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +144 Elo | CAR 69.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 69.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 69.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.832nd of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −1.132nd of 32 |
| 1st of 3255.9% | Shot share | 46.2%30th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 88.9%30th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 18th of 3214–18 | Road vs home | 10–2332nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–36 | 41–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–34 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 40–27 |
| Overs–unders | 27–40 | 33–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 3–0 SJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.