Carolina Hurricanes at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Taylor HallGoals3
- Jack RoslovicAssists2
- Taylor HallPoints3
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals1
- Jacob TroubaAssists1
- Alex KillornPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:02Taylor Hall Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Jack Roslovic (14)5–2
- P317:13Taylor Hall Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (20), Jack Roslovic (13)4–2
- P316:37Trevor Zegras Goal (9) Poke, assists: Jacob Trouba (13), Olen Zellweger (10)3–2
- P32:32Taylor Hall Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (14), Seth Jarvis (26)3–1
- P214:37Jordan Martinook Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (32), Logan Stankoven (23)2–1
- P213:04Alex Killorn Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (25)1–1
- P27:59Mark Jankowski Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Tyson Jost (2), Brent Burns (20)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:59Mark Jankowski Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Tyson Jost (2), Brent Burns (20)CAR 1 – 0 ANA · CAR 62% → 79% +17CAR 62% → 79%+17 pts
- P213:04Alex Killorn Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (25)CAR 1 – 1 ANA · ANA 20% → 39% +18ANA 20% → 39%+18 pts
- P214:37Jordan Martinook Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (32), Logan Stankoven (23)CAR 2 – 1 ANA · CAR 61% → 80% +19CAR 61% → 80%+19 pts
- P32:32Taylor Hall Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (14), Seth Jarvis (26)CAR 3 – 1 ANA · CAR 82% → 94% +13CAR 82% → 94%+13 pts
- P316:37Trevor Zegras Goal (9) Poke, assists: Jacob Trouba (13), Olen Zellweger (10)CAR 3 – 2 ANA · ANA <1% → 5% +5ANA <1% → 5%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 67%
- ML CAR -225 / ANA +190
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- CAR: Elo 57.5%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- CAR -201
- ANA +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.2 – 2.3 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +1 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +52 Elo | CAR 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 66.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 64.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.121st of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 1st of 3255.9% | Shot share | 46.0%31st of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 90.8%7th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 17th of 3215–19 | Road vs home | 16–1724th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–37 | 48–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 29–34 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 45–19 |
| Overs–unders | 28–41 | 26–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 1–2 ANA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.