Los Angeles Kings at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings
Avalanche- Martin NecasGoals2
- Martin NecasAssists1
- Martin NecasPoints3
Scoring summary
- P34:56Jonathan Drouin Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (79), Martin Necas (54)0–4
- P215:29Martin Necas Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (57), Jonathan Drouin (26)0–3
- P26:57Martin Necas Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Samuel Girard (20), Brock Nelson (28)0–2
- P25:25Logan O'Connor Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (56), Jack Drury (8)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:25Logan O'Connor Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (56), Jack Drury (8)LA 0 – 1 COL · COL 58% → 75% +17COL 58% → 75%+17 pts
- P26:57Martin Necas Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Samuel Girard (20), Brock Nelson (28)LA 0 – 2 COL · COL 75% → 88% +13COL 75% → 88%+13 pts
- P215:29Martin Necas Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (57), Jonathan Drouin (26)LA 0 – 3 COL · COL 90% → 97% +7COL 90% → 97%+7 pts
- P34:56Jonathan Drouin Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (79), Martin Necas (54)LA 0 – 4 COL · COL 99% → >99% +1COL 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 60%
- ML LA +140 / COL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- COL: Elo 59.3%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- COL -149
- LA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.5 – 3.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +1 | LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +66 Elo | COL 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 61.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.46th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.56th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.5% | Shot share | 53.4%5th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 90.0%17th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3214–23 | Road vs home | 24–127th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–36 | 32–40 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–26 | 25–34 |
| Underdog | 17–10 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 28–42 | 37–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 1–3 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.