Boston Bruins at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals1
- Cole KoepkeAssists1
- Morgan GeekiePoints1
Kings- Tanner JeannotGoals1
- Joel EdmundsonAssists2
- Tanner JeannotPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:03Samuel Helenius Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Edmundson (13), Tanner Jeannot (6)2–7
- P39:20Tanner Jeannot Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Brandt Clarke (25), Joel Edmundson (12)2–6
- P34:05Quinton Byfield Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (22), Alex Laferriere (19)2–5
- P217:38Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (29), Jordan Spence (20)2–4
- P28:46Drew Doughty Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (13), Quinton Byfield (25)2–3
- P22:07Morgan Geekie Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (29)2–2
- P119:31Warren Foegele Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (30), Trevor Lewis (5)1–2
- P12:43Anze Kopitar Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Adrian Kempe (28), Brandt Clarke (24)1–1
- P10:19Elias Lindholm Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Cole Koepke (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:19Elias Lindholm Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Cole Koepke (7)BOS 1 – 0 LA · BOS 30% → 43% +14BOS 30% → 43%+14 pts
- P12:43Anze Kopitar Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Adrian Kempe (28), Brandt Clarke (24)BOS 1 – 1 LA · LA 56% → 70% +14LA 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P119:31Warren Foegele Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (30), Trevor Lewis (5)BOS 1 – 2 LA · LA 67% → 81% +14LA 67% → 81%+14 pts
- P22:07Morgan Geekie Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (29)BOS 2 – 2 LA · BOS 19% → 33% +15BOS 19% → 33%+15 pts
- P28:46Drew Doughty Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (13), Quinton Byfield (25)BOS 2 – 3 LA · LA 65% → 81% +16LA 65% → 81%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- LA 70%
- ML BOS +225 / LA -275
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- LA: Elo 63.2%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- LA -238
- BOS +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.1 – 3.4 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | LA and BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +4 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +94 Elo | LA 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 70.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 68.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.62nd of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.311th of 32 |
| 26th of 3248.5% | Shot share | 52.2%6th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.7%9th of 32 |
| 28th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 32 |
| 26th of 3211–23 | Road vs home | 24–71st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–39 | 32–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–23 | 15–26 |
| Underdog | 22–16 | 17–10 |
| Overs–unders | 34–37 | 27–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–1 LA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.